According to the butterfly effect, small initial causes of the initial conditions can have a large effect on a nonlinear system. The flapping of the wings of a butterfly in New Mexico, can cause a hurricane in Japan over a period of time. The butterfly effect was coined by Edward Norton Lorenz, who was an American mathematician and meteorologist, well known for his work on the Chaos Theory. In his study of the numerical weather prediction, which was based on mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans that was used to simulate future weather conditions on taking into account current weather conditions, Edward Lorenz concluded that a small change of any of the variables influencing the weather, had a large effect on the preceding weather conditions, which led to his unwillingness to support linear models for meteorological studies. Later, the butterfly effect was used as a metaphor.
The rise of unpredictability:
Whenever in a non-linear system, unless we have perfect readings of the initial conditions, we cannot predict the future as even the slightest of errors could lead to a totally different outcome.
Scientist, James Annman, did agree that chaos or randomness was important to contributing towards weather prediction methods; however the perturbation caused by an unknown butterfly would require a large amount of time to multiply into a tornado and there were too many other more foundation factors to be considered in weather forecasting.
The effect Word Wars have had on our lives is undeniable. The Butterfly effect that lead to world wars are as follows:
- World War 1: In the first world war, on June 28th 1914, there was a grenade hurled at car carrying Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria. The grenade failed to hit the target but injured passengers of the tailing car. Franz Ferdinand later wanted to visit those wounded in the attack. While en-route to the wounded, the driver of the Archduke’s car made a wrong turn and halted at a street. At this very place the, 19 year old Serbian Nationalist Gavrilo Princip, same person who had earlier tried to assassinate the archduke spotted the Ferdinand and shot him and his wife to death. After the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, Austria-Hungary declared war against Serbia. This also lead Germany to declare war on Russia followed by France and Belgium and later UK went to war against Germany. Had the driver not taken the wrong turn, the Archduke of Austria-Hungary would not have been assassinated and World War 1 though probably unavoidable, wouldn’t have happened as we know it.
- World War 2: On 28 September 1918, Henry Tandey, an English soldier while serving the 5th Duke of Wellington’s regiment in the French village of Marcoing, came face to face with a wounded German soldier. Henry, chose not to shoot this enemy soldier, instead he let him pass. The German soldier thanked him and was Adolf Hitler. Had Tandey pulled the trigger there are was a possibility that World war 2 may not have happened.
Other day to day examples:
- . When two helium balloons are released into the sky from the same with a minute difference in space, we often see the balloons land up in different positions.
- Just because a small fish moved in a particular direction, two neighboring water molecules could end up in different oceans.
- The chaotic rise or fall of the stock market.
The fact that thousands of people are reading this instead of going outside or doing something else, could have a different effect on each one of your lives. Someone could have gone out and purchased a lottery ticket or have met with an accident, we can never know. In short, this article has changed your life forever.